Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 1.399673 1.457311 1.516902 1.583293 1.655411 1.731627 1.818587
2026-01-11 1.325565 1.402226 1.483957 1.578107 1.684249 1.801038 1.940432
2026-01-18 1.275016 1.364964 1.463134 1.579220 1.714081 1.867550 2.058028
2026-01-25 1.216388 1.313569 1.421476 1.551606 1.706308 1.887098 2.118745
2026-02-01 1.177534 1.281593 1.398959 1.543084 1.718180 1.928104 2.205698
2026-02-08 1.142749 1.252042 1.376971 1.532825 1.725845 1.962678 2.285175
2026-02-15 1.111161 1.224459 1.355486 1.521237 1.730078 1.991800 2.358104
2026-02-22 1.090809 1.209003 1.347311 1.524783 1.752428 2.044172 2.464843
2026-03-01 1.056759 1.175728 1.316032 1.497784 1.733763 2.040877 2.493084
2026-03-08 1.029719 1.149944 1.292826 1.479681 1.725263 2.049939 2.538533
2026-03-15 1.007992 1.129861 1.275807 1.468493 1.724882 2.069357 2.599689
2026-03-22 0.998952 1.124934 1.277263 1.480816 1.755994 2.133574 2.732817
2026-03-29 0.992894 1.123863 1.283923 1.500727 1.799169 2.218813 2.909478
2026-04-05 0.976905 1.109796 1.273448 1.497291 1.809515 2.256590 3.013115
2026-04-12 0.964163 1.099384 1.267206 1.499074 1.826971 2.305609 3.140306
2026-04-19 0.940992 1.075113 1.242274 1.474500 1.805402 2.293639 3.159793
2026-04-26 0.926117 1.061055 1.230222 1.467045 1.808114 2.319094 3.248367
2026-05-03 0.911309 1.046702 1.217340 1.457894 1.807743 2.339364 3.329183
2026-05-10 0.896697 1.032249 1.203913 1.447459 1.804860 2.355171 3.402903
2026-05-17 0.888236 1.025519 1.200466 1.450752 1.822444 2.404972 3.548463
2026-05-24 0.869343 1.004813 1.177857 1.426204 1.796692 2.381295 3.542667
2026-05-31 0.854245 0.988805 1.161226 1.409720 1.782681 2.376597 3.575848
2026-06-07 0.842104 0.976450 1.149240 1.399523 1.777924 2.387241 3.642569